What are the prospects and implications of apossible EU enlargement in the close future?
- Journalisme
- Nov 28, 2024
- 10 min read
Enlargement is often called the EU’s most effective foreign policy. However, since its
biggest wave of new members that joined in 2004 (Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia), the process has stalled
to a great degree. In the months that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February
2022, the EU made Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia Herzegovina official candidate countries
and opened accession negotiations with Albania. Furthermore, engagement with the four
official candidates – Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey – has increased.
But what are the prospects and implications of a possible EU enlargement in the close
future?
The Copenhagen criteria
Any European state, if it respects the democratic values of the EU and shows commitment
to promoting them, may apply for EU membership. The criteria for accession, also known as
the Copenhagen criteria (named after the 1993 European Council meeting in Copenhagen
which defined them), are essential conditions that must be fulfilled by all candidate
countries in order to become a member state. They can be divided into political criteria
(stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and respect
and protection of minorities), economic criteria (a functioning market economy and the
capacity to cope with competition and marked forces) and the administrative and
institutional capacity to effectively implement the EU body of common rights and the ability
to take on the obligations that membership brings along.
The formal EU accession process
Once a state has applied for EU membership, all EU member states need to agree for the
formal accession process to start. When negotiations on all policy areas are completed, and
the EU itself is ready for enlargement regarding its absorption capacity, the terms and
conditions for accession are integrated in an accession treaty. This treaty requires the
consent of the European Parliament, as well as the Council’s unanimous approval, before it
then can be signed by all EU member states, as well as by the candidate country.
The European Commission recommends formal talks on accession of Ukraine and
Moldova
Both Ukraine and Moldova were granted official EU candidate status in June 2022. Mid-
December 2023, the next European Council summit will be held. Upon the most recent
recommendations of the European Commission, EU leaders should allow formal talks on the
accession of Ukraine and Moldova. “In the light of the results achieved by Ukraine and
Moldova, and of the ongoing reform efforts, the Commission has recommended that the
Council opens accession negotiations with both countries”, announced the EU executive on
Wednesday November 8 th . Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the decision a
“historic step that paves the way to a stronger EU with Ukraine as its member”. The
President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, was also pleased about the Commission’s
recommendations and promised to “work relentlessly” towards EU membership. European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, however, noted that the process continues to
be merit-based and that therefore, no specific date for full membership can be given.
Furthermore, the Commission has recommended upgrading Georgia, which was already
named a potential candidate seventeen months ago, to the status of an official EU
candidate country.
“Enlargement is a vital policy for the European Union”
Never before the European Commission has approved formal accession talks before a
nation has fully met all pre-conditions. However, the ongoing war has brought a sense of
utmost urgency into the usually rather sluggish process of approving new member states.
In the early days of the EU, enlargement was mainly motivated by the necessity of fortifying
Western Europe during the Cold War, and later by the need to stabilize the parts of the
former Soviet Union that had become independent. The current Russian threat has revived
the interest of accessing Eastern European and Western Balkan countries. Michael Gahler, a
German member of the European Parliament, stated that “we need to make it very clear
that Ukraine belongs in Europe”. “It is not in the Russian orbit, it is firmly anchored in the
West. And for that to happen, we need to start accession negotiations”, he added.
German diplomat Annalena Baerbock warned last week, that if the EU does not enlarge, the
whole European continent would become more “vulnerable”. Von der Leyen also stated
that “enlargement is a vital policy for the European Union” and that “past enlargements
have shown the enormous benefits both for the accession countries and the EU”.
“With today’s adoption of the new 6 billion Euros Growth Plan for the Western Balkans,
we are bringing the Western Balkans’ economies closer to the EU”
As many of the Balkan states are suffering from political instability, they have been very
slow to meet the bloc’s rather tough demands, which include crackdowns on corruption, as
well as judicial and constitutional reforms. Negotiations about the accession of the Western
Balkans have therefore stalled to a great degree in recent years. Western Balkan leaders
have warned their EU counterparts that their citizens are increasingly frustrated about the
slow pace of the negotiations, saying that they are looking for assurance that Brussels is
serious about expanding.
As a reaction, the Commission has presented a new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans
worth 6 billion Euros, consting of 2 billion Euros in grants and 4 billion Euros in concessional
loans, with payment conditioned on the fulfilment of agreed reforms. The Growth Plan aims
at bringing some of the benefits of membership to the Western Balkans in advance of
accession, stimulate economic growth and precipitate much needed socio-economic
convergence. On Wednesday November 8 th , Von der Leyen said: “With today’s adoption of
the new 6 billion Euros Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, we are bringing the Western
Balkans’ economies closer to the EU.”
Key reforms pending in Ukraine
The new assessment of candidate countries’ progress towards becoming EU members
showed that Ukraine still has some work to do on anti-corruption, de-oligarchization and
the rights of minorities. According to the Corruption Perceptions Index of Transparency
International, which ranks countries from least to most corrupt, Ukraine comes in at 116 out
of 180 countries. Progress in terms of reducing corruption is essential to ensure the backing
of EU member states. The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, recently showed
reluctance to the EU’s plans of increasing financial support to Ukraine, calling Ukraine in a
post on Facebook “one of the most corrupt countries in the world”.
Furthermore, Hungary’s ultranationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that the rights of
the Hungarian minority in the West of Ukraine is not guaranteed, and he therefore
previously threatened to veto the country’s EU membership.
Here, however, it is important to mention that the governments of both Slovakia and
Hungary are often qualified as “pro-Russian”. Therefore, what is certainly going to pose a
problem for Ukraine's integration, beyond anti-corruption reforms and the protection of
ethnic minorities, are Slovakia and Hungary excercising their vetos, which are clearly of
political nature.
The report of the Commission also called on Kyiv to integrate minority languages, such as
Hungarian and Romanian, into its secondary education system and media landscape.
However, according to a senior EU official, “the use of the Russian language is not
something the Commission will look at”, even though Russian is spoken by around 30% of
Ukrainian population.
As part of the reforms, Ukraine must also suppress the influence of oligarchs on public
administration, tightening its government lobbying rules.
Key reforms pending in Moldova
Also Moldova needs to finalize judicial reforms and introduce further anti-graft measures.
Furthermore, the government and economy of Transnistria, a de facto independent
territory, but which is internationally recognized as a part of Moldova, are heavily
dependent on subsidies from Russia, which maintains a military presence in Transnistria.
The ruling political group is aligned with powerful local business interests, political
competition is restricted, authorities closely control civil activity and pluralism of opinion in
the media is very limited. The Freedom House, which rates people’s access to political rights
and civil liberties in 210 countries and territories worldwide, categorized Transnistria as “not
free”.
Key reforms pending in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted official candidate status in December 2022, however,
in comparison to Ukraine and Moldova, formal accession negotiations have not started yet.
Deeply rooted ethnic divisions and delays in electoral, judicial and constitutional reforms
have made the country fall behind on the path to EU membership, compared to its
neighbors. In its report, the EU Commission said that elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina
were “marked by mistrust in public institutions and ethnically diverese rhetoric” and in an
August ruling, the European Court of Human Rights called the country an “ethnocracy”, in
which elections are undemocratic and entrench the advantageous position of dominant
ethnic groups. Von der Leyen noted that negotiations can only open “once certain criteria
are met”.
Another concern of the EU is the Republika Srpska, a territorial entity of Bosnia and
Herzegovina where ethnic Serbs form the majority and which has favored a neutral posture
on the war in Ukraine, whilst the rest of the country aligned with the EU’s stance against
Russia’s war of aggression.
Key reforms pending in Serbia
Serbia, one of the four official candidates for EU membership, also still has some key
reforms pending on the way to becoming an EU member state. Aligning on security and
foreign policy is amongst the EU’s demands for Serbia, where Russia still has a huge
influence. However, it does not look like Serbia is willing to cooperate in this area. Serbia’s
President, Aleksandar Vučić, blamed the EU for “pressuring” him and his country to join
sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. He called this a “brutal” interference of
Serbia’s sovereignty. Also, Serbia’s Minister of Econonmy, Rade Basta, who had called on his
government to sanction Russia, was dismissed immediately after making his proposition.
Furthermore, the EU executive criticized the escalating tensions between Serbia and Kosovo
and said that the “pace of negotiations” depended on whether the two countries were able
to normalize their relations.
EU enlargement would have profound economic implications
Even though the war might have altered the political situation, it has not changed the
challenges around the EU’s capacity for expansion. The question is not only if the candidate
countries can carry out the long list of required reforms, but also whether the EU itself can
reform itself enough to be able to absorb the new members.
With a GDP per capita of 4,451 Euros in 2021 – more than ten times less than advanced
European economies like Germany, France, or the UK – Ukraine was already among the
poorest countries in Europe before the war started. According to Jolyon Howorth, Professor
of European politics at the University of Bath, integrating such an economically crumbling
country would cost a “horrendous amount”.
Also the Western Balkans, where the average income per capita ranges from just 27% to
50% of the bloc’s average, have comparably weak economies, which makes integrating
them into the EU an economic challenge for the bloc.
However, Von der Leyen said that the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans mentioned
before “could double the economy of the Western Balkans in the next 10 years”.
Admitting Ukraine would weigh most heavily on the EU’s finances. The two biggest areas of
the EU budget are the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and cohesion, or regional spending.
Therefore, granting accession to Ukraine, whose agricultural sector employs around 14% of
its population and whose farmland surpasses the size of Italy, would be a fundamental
game-changer. Ukraine would become the biggest recipient of CAP funding, which would
either mean that other EU countries would have to accept much lower payments or that the
EU would need to augment its agricultural budget immensely.
Recently, there has already been a diplomatic dispute over the topic, as Hungary, Poland
and Slovakia extended a temporary ban unilaterally placed on Ukrainian grain imports in
order to protect their national economies – a move likely to anger EU leaders.
“The bigger the EU gets, the more difficult it becomes to make decisions and engage in
collective action”
Enlargement could further be a strain for the unity, cohesion and functioning of the EU.
Already now, different EU member states do not always agree over the nature of the bloc
and its objectives. Persisting with unanimous decision-making on foreign or taxation policy
would become even more difficult in an expanded EU, as a single country can veto and block
any proposal it does not agree with. On votes on issues where the EU permits so-called
qualified majority decision-making, it would be more challenging to assemble coalitions of
like-minded member states that are large enough. “The bigger the European Union gets, the
more difficult it becomes to make decisions and engage in collective action”, stated Michael
Keating, Professor of Politics at Aberdeen University in Scotland.
The center of gravity would shift towards the East
Furthermore, accession of Ukraine would shift the center of gravity towards the East.
With some 40 million inhabitants, Ukraine would be the EU’s fifth largest member and the
largest in terms of land mass. Poland is currently on its way to become the biggest army of
the EU.
According to Keating, this would significantly change the geopolitical situation, as it would
open the way for a new Warsaw-Kyiv axis that could rival the traditional Paris-Berlin one.
Even though Ukraine itself would not be “very powerful”, with the “old Franco-German
motor not what it used to be…we could certainly see a large shift in the balance of power
within the EU”, he stated.
EU enlargement as a security risk for the EU
Last but not least, EU enlargement would have security implications for the EU.
The Balkan region remains a breeding ground for ethnic tensions.
Furthermore, Russia still has a big influence in the Western Balkans, especially in Serbia and
in the Republika Srpska. Regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine, this could eventually pose a
security threat to the EU.
Ukraine is currently in the midst of a major interstate war and lacks NATO’s security
guarantees. The Article 42.7 of the EU treaty says that the union offers member states a
mutual defense guarantee comparable to the one of NATO. However, the EU can’t defend
its external borders without NATO.
Some EU member states argue that defending Ukraine will be less of an impossible task in
the future than it seems now. There are three scenarios that explain this optimism. First,
many EU member states hope that Ukraine, like the Central and Eastern European countries
did in 2004, will join NATO before joining the EU. Secondly, many Europeans believe that a
Russian attack on the EU would cause a US intervention, as a large part of EU member states
are also in NATO. Thirdly, some hope that by the time Ukraine is apt to join the union, it will
already have signed a durable peace agreement with Russia.
However, the reality looks different. At present, NATO members are unwilling to access
Ukraine until the war is over. Especially the US does not want to be obliged to enter into a
direct conflict with nuclear-armed Russia.
Sources:
77_EN.pdf (13.11.2023)
moldova-should-start-brussels-says (13.11.2023)
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022 (13.11.2023)
the-eu (13.11.2023)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67354323 (13.11.2023)
conundrum-for-eu-pub-90838 (13.11.2023)
hungary-intl/index.html (15.11.2023)
balkan-dreams-alive-in-eu-enlargement-review (15.11.2023)
growth-plan-western-balkans-including-eu6-billion-grants-and-loans-2023-11-08_en
(15.11.2023)
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